摘要
为了解常规的儿童出生月报系统出生率的可信性 ,以及对该系统报告质量作出科学的评价 ,从而为发现、分析、解决该系统运行过程中存在的问题提供科学的依据 ,运用捕获 -再捕获方法估算 1999年全县儿童出生率。结果表明 :1999年全县常规的儿童出生月报系统报告的出生数为 8197人 ,出生率为 7 99‰ ,运用捕获 -再捕获方法估算 1999年全县儿童出生数为 890 2人 ,95 %的可信区间为 8398～ 940 6人 ,儿童出生率的 95 %可信区间为 8 19‰～ 9 7‰ ,说明常规的儿童月报系统中存在严重漏报情况 ,建议采取措施解决这一问题 。
In order to understand the reliability of child birth rate reported by the common child birth month reporting system and the scientific appraisal of its reporting quality, and provide the scientific evidences for discovering, analysing, and solving the problems in its processes, the capture recapture method could be applied to estimate the child birth rate of Ganyu county in 1999. The child birth amount of Ganyu county reported by the common child birth month reporting system in 1999 was 8,197, the child birth rate was 7.99‰; the capture recapture method estimated child birth amount was 8,902, 95% reliable ranges was 8,398～9,406, 95% child birth rate reliable ranges was 8.19‰～ 9.7‰. It showed that the status of underreported child birth existing in the process of the common child month reporting system is serious, it is suggested that some measurements should be taken to solve this kind of problem for boosting the quality in the process of common child birth month reporting system.
出处
《中国计划免疫》
2000年第6期368-369,共2页
Chinese Journal of Vaccines and Immunization
