摘要
以网民对网络舆情事件的点击量,评论量和转载量指标分时间段进行统计,建立了"7.23事件"指标量的灰色预测模型,并进行了模型精度的检验;定义了舆情事件评价的参照标准值,并给出了相应的计算公式;基于参照标准值及评价指标量的灰色预测值,提出了网络舆情事件预警的等级划分标准,并通过"7.23事件","躲猫猫","赖昌星回国",和"唯冠起诉iPad商标侵权"网络舆情事件进行了定量预警的分析评价。
This article aims to monitor and pre-warn network public opinion events on the basis of the statistical data in piecewise-periods for the index amount of internet users＇ clicks, comments and transferring posts. Firstly, this article establishes a gray prediction model for ＂7.23 event＂, a network public opinion event. The precision of the model is verified. Secondly, a reference standard value is defined for the public opinion event, and a corresponding calculating formula is given. Based on the reference standard values and those of index amount of gray prediction model, grades for pre-warning the network public opinion events are put forward. Finally, Quantitative analyses of pre-warning of four public opinion events are given.
出处
《情报科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第12期51-56,共6页
Information Science
基金
云南省高校网络舆情信息分析系统研发及应用创新团队建设项目(2012-2014)
关键词
网络舆情
灰色预测
参照标准
等级划分
network public opinion
gray prediction
reference standards
grading
