摘要
本文基于相对海平面和绝对海平面的概念明确了相对海平面变化是影响沿海地区的直接因素;系统回顾了中国沿海未来相对海平面变化的三种预测方法并对其实质进行了分析。在充分认识引起相对海平面变化的因素及其变化特征的基础上对三种预测方法的合理性进行了剖析并指出正确区分相对海平面与绝对海平面,认识绝对海平面变化的时空特征以及合理考虑气候变化和人类活动对绝对海平面以及地面沉降的影响是实现相对海平面合理预测的关键,提出应利用长时间序列的卫星高度计资料外推结果或者高精度气候系统耦合模式预测结果叠加GPS资料外推结果来预测中国沿海未来相对海平面变化。
Based on the concept of relative and absolute sea level,it is clear that the relative sea level change is the direct factor influencing the coastal areas.In this paper,the prediction methods of relative sea level change along the coast of China is reviewed,analyzed and judged basing on the characteristics of the absolute sea level change and land subsidence which cause the relative sea level variation,it is pointed out that the difference between relative and absolute sea level,the spatio-temporal variability of the absolute sea level and the effect of global warming and human activities on absolute sea level change and land subsidence should all be considered in the prediction.Superposing the result by extrapolating long time series of satellite altimetry observation or the result of high-precision coupled climate model on the land subsidence extrapolated from the long record of GPS is the best method for the coastal relative sea level prediction.
出处
《海洋环境科学》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第3期451-455,共5页
Marine Environmental Science
基金
河海大学自然科学基金(2009427111)
中央高校基本科研业务专项(2009B02614)
卫星海洋环境动力学国家重点实验室开放基金(SOED1109)
海洋公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201105009
201105010
201005019)
国家自然科学基金(41276018)
关键词
海平面上升
绝对海平面
相对海平面
地面沉降
sea level rise
absolute sea level
relative sea level
land subsidence
