摘要
梯级开发活动系统与流域环境系统均为复杂的动态系统,两者的相互作用过程满足系统耦合的基本条件,且这种耦合机制表现为非线性的交互耦合关系。非线性的交互耦合是一个极其复杂的过程,不容易度量。在分析流域梯级开发活动与流域环境交互耦合的胁迫约束效应的基础上,建立了非线性交互耦合模型,且该交互耦合过程具有周期性螺旋上升演化特点。通过定义梯级开发活动随时间变化的约束函数以及流域环境随时间变化的胁迫函数,分别计算梯级开发活动和流域环境的演化速率VA、VB。定义VA、VB的演化轨迹夹角γ为耦合度,根据γ的大小将演化轨迹划分为4个象限,每个象限对应于演化轨迹的一个阶段,即系统发展阶段(0°≤γ<90°)、系统退化阶段(90°≤γ≤180°)、系统调节阶段(180°<γ<270°)、系统再生阶段(270°≤γ<360°)。根据γ、VA、VB的取值判断梯级开发项目与流域环境耦合的演化规律。最后用实例验证了该模型,结果表明,该流域的交互耦合系统仍处于发展初期阶段(0°≤γ<45°),但在研究期内,VA值和VB值从总体来看呈增长趋势。
Abstract： The present paper is aimed at coming up with our analysis of the evolutionary regularities and the coupling mechanism between the watershed hydropower-development exploration and the environ- ment change tendency evaluation. As is known, a lot of unexpected factors are involved with the cascade hydropower development system and the watershed environment evaluation, for the cascade hydropow- er projects are likely to bring about a series of unexpected impacts on the environment change and the diverse unpredicted mutually re- strained and interlocked factors, making the coupling system mutually related due to their complicated and sophisticated nature, which con- stitutes a complex process and hard to be weighted. Based on the stress and constrained impacts on the analysis and evaluation loads during the interactive coupling process, we have established a nonlin- ear interaction coupling model characterized by the features of period- ic spiral increase and complication. In order to reflect the objective complication and work load of the systematic evaluation, it is suggest- ed that the contributory indexes to the whole systems including f（CD）t and f（BE）t be assessed systematically and calculated sepa- rately. It is also necessary to make the curve fitting specifically in ac- cord with MATLAB board by taking f（ CD）t and f（ BE）t as the de- pendent variables with time ＂t＂ taken up as independent variable. And, for the convenience, it can be defined that the constraint func- tion ＂A＂ of the cascade development system tends to change with the index of time and the stress function ＂B＂ of the watershed environ- ment system with the change of time. It is also suggested that the evolution rate of cascade development ＂ VA＂ and that of environmentalimpact ＂ V8＂ are calculated by the derivation of formula ＂A＂ and ＂B＂. Taking the function system coupling rate ＂ V＂ as ＂VA＂ and ＂ VB＂ can be defined following the evolution track in an angle of ＂ Va＂ and ＂ VB＇＇ with the coupling degree ＂7＂. In so doing, the evo- lution track can be divided into four quadrants, which can be used to judge the evolutionary regularities of the coupling mechanism. Each quadrant shall be in correspondence with the one stage of the evolu- tionary track, that is, the system development stage （0°≤γ〈90°） , the system degeneration stage （90°≤γ≤180°）, the system regula- tion stage （180°〈γ〈270°） and the system regeneration stage （270°≤γ〈360°）. And, finally, we have brought about a case study sample to verify the model and the result, which are endowed with most of the coupling degrees ＂7＂ in different times in the former part of the first quadrant （0°≤γ〈45°） while the coupling system is in the initial development stage. However, during the research period, the values of ＂ VA＂ and ＂ VB＂ should be regarded as the dynamic in- fluential indexes in a trend of increase in general.
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第5期140-145,共6页
Journal of Safety and Environment
关键词
环境水利
水电梯级开发
流域环境
交互耦合
非线性
耦合机制
演化规律
environmental water conservancy
cascade hydropowerdevelopment
watershed environment
interactive cou-pling
nonlinear
coupling mechanism
evolution rules
