摘要
针对目前不同时效的数值预报结果存在"跃变"问题,基于Poor-man集成预报方法的思想,综合考虑各个时效的数值预报结果,利用最小二乘法,构建了一个预报模型,并利用2005—2010年欧洲中心下发的数值预报资料对该模型的预报效果进行了验证。结果表明,该模型较好地克服了利用单一时次预报带来的预报结果"跃变"的不足,对提高预报水平具有一定的作用。
： To resolve the ＂jump＂ issues in different numerical forecast products, based on the idea of Poor-man＇s ensemble forecasting method, the least squares method is used to construct a prediction model by considering the numerical forecast results in different time. And the data of ECMWF （European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast） from 2005 to 2011 are employed to validate the results. It is showed that this model can overcome the ＂jump＂ issue from a single prediction result, and improve the forecast level.
出处
《气象与减灾研究》
2013年第2期37-41,共5页
Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(编号:41275112)
关键词
Poor—man集成预报
数值天气预报
最小二乘法
Poor-man＇s ensemble forecasting method
Numerical weather prediction
Least squares method.
