摘要
利用三维插值方法对ECMWF、Japan及T639三种数值模式细网格气温预报产品进行客观订正,并检验评估三维插值方法对湖南省不同海拔高度和不同地理位置上2 159个气象站点的气温预报订正能力。个例结果显示,三维插值方法具有明显的订正效果,不同程度地缩小了二维平面插值预报的偏差,能较客观地反映复杂地形区域要素的实际情况;三维插值方法较二维插值对ECMWF、Japan、T639三种模式气温预报的订正能力均有不同程度的提高,改进后的ECMWF模式气温预报准确率达94%;对于海拔较高的站点,三维插值方法相对于二维插值订正的幅度更大,对模式预报有向气温降低的趋势调整,对于海拔较低的站点,对模式预报有向气温升高的趋势调整。
A three dimensional interpolation method was applied to objectively modify the refined grid temperature forecast based on the ECMWF, Japan and T639 numerical models, and the temperature forecast modification of the method for 2 159 meteorological stations at different altitudes and different geographical locations in Hunan province was discussed. Compared with two dimensional interpolation method, the three dimensional interpolation method presented significant correction effect and reduced the deviation of forecast, which can objectively reflect the actual situation of regional elements of complex terrain. Moreover, the correction performance of the three dimensional interpolation method for temperature forecast based on ECMWF, Japan and T639 numerical models was improved greatly, and the accuracy rate of temperature forecast based on ECMWF models could reach 94%. The adjusted level was greater for three dimensional interpolation method than for two dimensional interpolation method and the temperature forecast based on numerical models was corrected to a negative trend for higher altitude stations, while positive trend for lower altitude stations.
出处
《气象与减灾研究》
2017年第1期30-35,共6页
Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research
基金
2016年湖南省气象局短平快科研课题"三维插值方法对2 m气温在复杂地形精细化预报中的的应用与检验"
关键词
精细化预报
三维插值方法
气温
误差
检验
refined forecast
three-dimensional interpolat ion method
temperature
deviation
verification
