摘要
为弥补油气长输管道设计方案在风险评价方面的不足,提出基于模糊多属性理论的综合风险评价法。将管道综合风险分为组织管理风险与质量技术风险,并建立2类风险因素的层次结构,对2类指标分别进行定性和半定量分析。再采用加权考夫曼距离算法,将评价结果转化为风险距离,相加后得到综合风险距离,并对综合风险距离进行等级划分。经实例验证:用该方法可对多个不同等级的单一风险进行综合评价,得出一个统一的总风险等级;同时能弥补在极端情况下传统风险计算结果不符合实际情况的不足。
In order to modify the risk evaluation practice of design scheme for the domestic and international oil ＆ gas pipelines, a comprehensive risk evaluation method was worked out based on fuzzy multi-attribute theory. Pipeline comprehensive risk was divided into organization management risk and quality technology risk, and hierarchical structure of two types of risk factors was established, and the method of qualitative and semi-quantitative evaluation was used to assess the factors separately. Then, the results of evaluation were transformed into risk distance based on weighted Kaufman distance algorithm, and compre- hensive risk distance is gained by adding two type risk distances, and divided into different levels. It is verified by a certain example that using the method, can be made.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第8期133-138,共6页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
国家科技支撑计划课题(2011BAK06B01-11)
关键词
油气长输管道
设计方案
综合风险评价
风险距离
模糊多属性理论
oil ＆ gas long-distance transportation comprehensive risk evaluation
risk a comprehensive risk evaluation conforming to reality pipelines
design scheme
distance
fuzzy multi-attribute theory
