摘要
为分析船舶失控状态下船-桥碰撞概率分布特征,定量界定船舶失控状态下桥区水域范围,提高桥区通航安全保障水平,对界定方法进行研究。以失控状态下船舶的运动模型为基础,建立基于失控运动特征的船-桥碰撞概率计算模型。在此基础上,根据船-桥碰撞概率可接受标准定量界定桥区水域范围。为验证算法的合理性,运用蒙特卡洛法模拟出不同气象、水文条件和船舶失控状态下的船-桥碰撞概率,基于随机模拟结果,计算出不同船-桥碰撞概率条件下桥区水域范围。仿真结果表明:用该方法界定的桥区水域范围与当前海事主管部门经验设置的范围一致。
To study ship impact against bridge probability characteristics under ship out of control condition,define quantificationally bridge safety area,raise the level of bridge area navigation safety,a model was built for calculating the impact probability based on the motion model of ship out of control.According to the acceptable standard of ship-bridge collision probability,bridge’s safety area under ship out of control condition was defined.To verify the rationality of the algorithm,the Monte Carlo method was used to simulate the impact under different meteorological and hydrological conditions and ship out of control conditions.Then bridge safety areas obtained on the basis of different ship-bridge collision probabilities were figured out.The simulation results indicate that the bridge’s safety area under ship out of control condition that was defined by this method coincides with the area defined by the maritime administration.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第7期85-91,共7页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
交通西部建设科技项目(201132820190)
2013年度海事科技项目(2013-57)
关键词
船舶失控
桥区水域范围
船-桥碰撞
碰撞概率
蒙特卡洛法
ship out of control
bridge safety area
ship impact against bridge
impact probability
Monte Carlo method
