摘要
为了实现海堤工程中风速和潮位参数组合的优化设计,提出了独立性风险和关联性风险的概念,并基于概率理论,定义了2种风险的计算模型,分析了2种风险之间的关系,以此提出风速和潮位组合的优化设计方法.利用江苏省沿海典型站(连云港站、射阳闸站、天生港站)多年实测风速资料和潮位资料,对提出的优化设计方法展开实例分析.结果表明:各站点风速和潮位变化趋势的差异性导致风速和潮位同频率设计存在较大的安全性;各站点风速和潮位遭遇特征的差异性导致风速和潮位区域优化组合形式存在一定的差异性;从优化组合的角度考虑,江苏省现行海堤设计组合标准"50 a一遇防潮标准加10级风",尚有待进一步论证其合理性和安全性;海堤设计应充分考虑风速和潮位的独立性风险与关联性风险之间的协调性,以确保海堤设计的安全性和经济性;这种优化设计方法也可应用到其他类似水利工程设计中.
In order to obtain the optimal combination of the tide and the wind in seadike design,two different concepts of independent risk and related risk were put forward.Based on these concepts and the theory of probability,a computational model of the two risks was defined and the relationship between the two risks was analyzed.Accordingly,a method for optimizing the two design parameters（tide and wind） was proposed.By applying the above-mentioned optimal design method to some case studies of Lianyungang,Sheyangzha,Tianshenggang in Jiangsu province,it is found that,because of different change tendency between tide and wind,the assumption that tide and wind adopt the same frequency is too conservative for design;the characteristics difference between tide and wind causes regional difference of the best combination of the two parameters;the present Jiangsu seadike design standard of the tide level for ＂the fifty-year return period encountering the 10th grade wind＂,from the perspective of optimal combination,can be further discussed regarding its rationality and safety.To ensure the seadike project′s safety and economy in seadike designing,the coordination between the two types of risks should be taken into consideration.This optimal design method can also be applied in other similar water engineering designs.
出处
《排灌机械工程学报》
EI
北大核心
2013年第4期313-317,共5页
Journal of Drainage and Irrigation Machinery Engineering
基金
水利部公益性项目(201001070)
