摘要
本文在分析东盟区域一体化与参与全球生产网络现状的基础上,利用GTAP-Dyn模型对东盟国家不同层次一体化协定的福利影响、贸易规模以及部门产出变化等生产网络效应进行实证比较分析,发现区域一体化协定有利于促进生产网络的进一步发展,而有着生产网络关系的国家出于维护稳定安全贸易关系的需要有进一步签订或深化一体化协定的利益诉求,东盟区域一体化进程,在正式一体化形式与参与全球生产网络非正式一体化形式的互动作用下不断向前推进。当前靠正式一体化形式推动一体化举步维艰,而参与全球生产网络非正式一体化形式可灵活地发挥关键作用,这些对我国的区域协调发展以及如何在参与全球生产网络过程中保证利益最大化都有所启示。
As the development in intro-product trade deepens in recent years, the degree of ASEAN countries participating in the global production network in- creased. Meanwhile, ASEAN integration agreements were also implemented at dif- ferent levels, continuously pushing forward the regional integration process. Based on an analysis of the current situation in ASEAN regional integration and its par- ticipation in global production networks, and applying the GTAP-Dyn model, this paper makes an empirical comparative analysis of the changes in welfare, trade scale and output, etc., observing that regional integration agreements are helpful to promote the development of production networks, and countries with produc- tion networks would have to intensify their integration efforts so as to keep its trade relations secure and stable. The ASEAN regional integration process would constantly move forward under the interaction effect of the integration agreement （formal） and participation in the global production network （informal）. Now un- der the unrest international situation, relying on formal integration to promote inte- gration has been struggling, while the informal integration effort by participating in global production networks can be flexible and effective. This paper concludes by stating some implications that can be useful to help China promote its region- al development harmoniously and maximize the benefit in the process of partici- pating in global production networks.
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第9期55-67,共13页
Journal of International Trade
基金
教育部哲学社会科学发展报告资助项目<东南亚地区发展报告>(11JBCP029)
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目<东盟国家产业结构研究>(11JJD810020)
