摘要
本文利用含中国加工贸易部门的GTAP多国多部门可计算一般均衡模型,对中、美或将发生的局部贸易摩擦及不同程度的全面贸易制裁进行模拟。结果显示:若中、美爆发全面贸易制裁,中国当期实际经济增长率下降1.67%-4.51%,实物投资下降0.82%-2.09%,一般贸易出口下降0.14%-1.15%,一般贸易进口下降0.2%-1.74%,加工贸易出口下降0.11%-0.96%,加工贸易进口下降0.10%-0.85%。虽然,进出口变化有助于控制国内物价水平上涨,但我国新增就业会有所降低。美国方面,发动针对中国的贸易战,既无助于增加国内生产(实物生产下降0.07%-0.54%),拉动投资(实物量投资下降0.44%-1.57%),刺激消费(价格上升0.13%-0.18%),又无助于增加国内就业及削减贸易逆差。中、美两国贸易摩擦,弊大于利。
In this paper, we used improved GTAP multi-countries and multi-sectors＇ computable general equilibrium model to simulate the different lev- els of Sino-US trade war, which is possible to occurr in the near future. The sce- nario results show that, after breaking the Sino-US trade war, to China, the GDP growth rate is expected to decline 1.67%-4.51%, the quantity investment will re- duce 0.82%-2.09%, the export and import for non-processing trade will decline 0.14%-1.15% and 0.2%-1.74%, respectively, and the number for processing trade is 0.11~,/o-0.96% of export and 0.10%-0.85% of import. Although the domestic price index will be controlled, our labor market will be expected to loss to some extent. To the United States, the trade war against China can neither help to in- crease the domestic production and investment, nor help to apply the job opportu- nities and reduce the trade deficit. Sino-US trade war is ultimately more detrimen- tal than beneficial to both countries.
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第11期50-65,共16页
Journal of International Trade
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目"过度外部失衡参考性指标构建"(项目号:11CJL038)
国家自然科学基金国际重大合作项目
"利用反映加工贸易特点的非竞争进口型投入占用产出模型和CGE模型研究出口对国内增加值
国民收入及就业等影响"(项目号:70810107020)支持
