摘要
该文采用集合径流预报(ensemble streamflow prediction,ESP)方法对汉江白河站1970～2000年逐月径流量进行了回顾式预报。针对传统集合径流预报方法中对气象条件变异性考虑不足这一问题,该文尝试引入影响径流的大气环流因子和遥相关信息,对历史气象年份进行挑选,选择与预报年相似的历史气象条件组成集合,以增加气象集合输入的代表性,从而提高径流预报的精度。以夏季(6月、7月、8月)和冬季(12月、次年1月、2月)月径流量为预报对象,改进后的集合径流预报方法显著地提高了预报精度,各月预报的合格率均超过60%,其中8月和12月的合格率达88%,能够满足实际生产需要。
Medium-long range streamflow forecasts provide key technical support for reservoir operations,water resources management and flood control,which are of great importance to the nation＇s social-economic development and public safety.The ensemble streamflow prediction（ESP）method was used to predict streamflow during 1970—2000at the Baihe station of the Hanjiang River basin.The effect of the initial conditions is well addressed in the traditional ESP,while the variability of meteorological forcing is not.This study improves the traditional ESP by incorporating future meteorological information（circulation indexes as well as climate teleconnection factors）.Monthly streamflow forecasts for summer and winter months show that the improved ESP has better forecasting ability than the traditional ESP.
出处
《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第5期606-612,共7页
Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51190092)
水利部公益性行业专项基金资助(201001004)
关键词
月径流预报
集合径流预报(ESP)
改进的ESP
汉江
monthly streamflow forecast
ensemble streamflow prediction（ESP）
improved ESP
Hanjiang River
