摘要
改革开放三十余年以来,上海市经济得到高速发展,大量人口涌入,然而同时上海市的城乡收入差距仍呈现进一步扩大的趋势。基于上海市1978-2010年统计数据,通过对人口聚集和城乡收入差距建立量化指标,进行协整分析建立误差修正模型,并通过格兰杰因果检验,探究两者之间的内在作用机制。结果表明,上海市人口聚集与城乡收入差距之间存在长期的均衡关系,城乡收入差距随着城市人口聚集程度升高而扩大,且两者存在双向的格兰杰因果关系。应将合理确定人口分布密度、引导人口有序集中作为抑制城乡收入差距扩大的应有之策,在关注人口总量控制的同时更应关注人口的流动。
More than 30 years after the reform and opening-up in China,the economy of Shanghai has gotten fast development together with the influx of immigrants.Meanwhile,Shanghai urban-rural income gap is still showing a continued upward trend.Based on the statistical data of Shanghai,the paper establishes quantitative indicators of population concentration and urban-rural income gap,and explores the internal operating mechanism using error correction model,cointegration analysis and Granger causality test.The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between Shanghai population concentration and urban-rural income gap.The income gap expands due to the increasing degree of aggregation of the urban population and there is a two-way Granger causality between them.In order to control efficiently urban-rural income gap,we should pay great attention to rational population distribution density and their mobility.
出处
《南通大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
2013年第4期14-18,共5页
Journal of Nantong University:Social Sciences Edition
关键词
人口聚集
城乡收入差距
协整分析
population concentration
urban-rural income gap
Co-Integration Analysis
