摘要
选取吉林省为研究区域，以吉林省七五到十一五（1986—2010年）25年间的粮食产量为研究对象，运用空间自相关模型结合GIS技术，对其25年粮食产量空间格局的动态变化、特征及成因进行研究。结果表明，25年内吉林省粮食产量全局空间自相关指数的平均值为0．36128，存在较强的空间聚集性，粮食产量全局空间自相关除十五期间明显增加外，其他时期均较稳定；粮食产量“高一高”聚集（HH）的区域主要集中分布在吉林省中南部的粮食主产区，从七五到十一五期间其范围呈先扩大后缩小的趋势，并且逐步向东南转移。粮食产量“低一低”聚集（LL）的区域主要分布在吉林省的西北部和东南部的粮食低产区，其中东部动态变化不明显，西部地区呈现先缩小后扩大的趋势；利用相关分析方法从影响粮食产量变化的20个因子中筛选出6个主要因子（化肥施用量、机耕面积、粮食播种面积、农村用电量、农业人口、农业机械总动力），其中化肥使用量和机耕面积等农业现代化建设因素对粮食产量的影响不断增强。
This article selects the Jilin province as the research area, from the 7th five-year plan to 11th five-year plan（1986-2010） 25 years of food production as the research object, use spatial autocorrelation model combining GIS technology, research on Jilin＇ s 25 years of grain output of the dynamic change of spatial pattern, features and causes. Results show that： There are strong space gathered properties in 25 years global grain yield of Jilin province spatial autocorrelation index for the average 0.361 28, the other period are relatively stable except the 10th five-year plan; grain output ＂high - high＂ （H-H） gathered area mainly distributed in south-central major grain producing areas of Jilin province, from 7th five-year plan to 1 lth five-year plan its range expanded first downsizing trend, and gradually to southeast metastasis. Grain output ＂low- low＂ gathered （L-L） mainly distributed in the area of Jilin province in west and east food low region, including the eastern dynamic changes not obvious, western region present the trend of widening narrow; using the correlation analysis method on food production change＇s 20 factors screening 6 major factors（chemical fertilizer, machine farming area, grain sowing area, rural electricity consumption, agricultural population, the total power of agriculturalmachinery）, agricultural modernization construction factors such as the chemical fertilizer and machine farming area etc. have significant influence of grain production.
出处
《东北农业大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第5期138-143,共6页
Journal of Northeast Agricultural University
基金
国家农业科技成果转化资金项目(2009GB2B100095)
吉林省科技支撑计划项目(20080207)
教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目
关键词
粮食产量
空间自相关
空间格局变化
吉林省
grain output
spatial autocorrelation
change of spatial pattern
Jilin Province
