摘要
为了阐述陕西省的耕地面积变化及其压力状况,基于60a统计数据,分析了陕西省耕地数量随时间变化特点,计算了耕地压力指数,利用GM(1,1)模型预测了全省未来10a耕地面积及其人均耕地面积变化。结果表明,1949-2010年的60a时间里,陕西省耕地面积总体呈现下降趋势,下降了152.41万hm2,旱地是耕地的主体,减少了181.35万hm2,而水浇地面积增加了77.51万hm2,耕地结构趋于合理;人均耕地面积下降了0.28hm2,1980年以前的30a时间下降最明显,到2010年为0.10hm2。未来10a里,全省耕地面积和人均耕地面积会有一定的下降,但降幅不明显,且3种预案条件下(人均年粮食需求量380、400、420kg),耕地压力过大出现的时间不同,人均年粮食需求量420kg下最小人均耕地面积出现的时间最早(2014年),人均年粮食需求量400kg下最小人均耕地面积出现在2017年,并基于此对陕西省粮食安全问题提出了相应建议。
Cropland is a very important land resource for maintaining peoples living and grain safety. Many researchers study cropland change and predict future trends at the different scales, and the results are not ideal because the short time series statistic data cannot show cropland change characteristics and the regression model method is not perfect for simulating future cropland trends. Shaanxi is an agriculture province in western China and is representative of all agriculture production. Statistical yearbooks are very important for analysis of long time series in China. We obtained 60 years’ worth of cropland statistics from the statistical yearbooks of Shaanxi province between 1949 and 2010. The area change characteristics and pressure conditions of the cropland from 1949 to 2010 were analyzed for service agriculture production and food security based on these data. The cropland pressure index was calculated and GM （1, 1） model was used to forecast the trend of cropland and cropland acreage per capita for the future ten years. In order to ensure that the results were credible, non-parametric analysis was used to analyze the interaction between different parameters. The results showed that cropland consisted of arid land, irrigated land, and marshy fields. Arid land was the main type of cropland in Shaanxi province, and accounted for 94.63% of cropland acreage in 1949 and 63.40% in 2010. There was 438.47×10^4 hm^2 cropland in 1949 and 286.05×10^4 hm^2 in 2010, which decreased 152.41×10^4 hm^2 and reduced 2.46×10 4 hm^2 per year from 1949 to 2010. The acreage of irrigated land and marshy fields increased, with the increased acreage amount of irrigated land being more than that of marshy fields. The acreage of irrigated land increased 77.51×10^4 hm^2 between 1949 and 2010. Arid land had an effect on cropland acreage change. Cropland structure became more reasonable and experienced the increased stage and reduced stage repeatedly between 1949 and 2010. Cropland acreage per capita was 0.38 hm^2 in 1949 and 0.10 hm^2 in 2010 and decreased 0.28 hm^2 , the change of which during 1949 to 1980 was more obvious than that after 1980. According to non-parameter analysis, cropland acreage per capita was affected by population that added 2417.17×10^4 peoples during the past 60 years. Based on the GM （1,1） models of cropland acreage per capita and cropland acreage, the amount of cropland and cropland acreage per capita will be 286.10× 10^4 hm^2 and 0.090 hm^2 in 2013, 281.68×10^4 hm^2 and 0.087 hm^2 in 2015, and 270.92×10^4 hm^2 and 0.079 hm^2 in 2020, respectively. Under different projected conditions, excessive pressure of cropland happened in different times. S min （420） condition was in the earliest time （2014） and S min （400） in 2017. GM（1, 1）was suitable to simulate the future cropland change. Some suggestions were provided to prohibit food security issues and maintain the amount of cropland at the higher level in Shaanxi province.
出处
《农业工程学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第11期217-223,共7页
Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金项目资助(31000222
31170664)
关键词
土地利用
模型
预测
耕地压力指数
耕地资源
陕西省
land use
models
forecasting
cultivated land pressure index
cultivated land
Shaanxi province
