摘要
随着《联合国气候变化框架公约》20年谈判的推进,有关气候公平的原则不再只是停留在理论和框架层面,而是更多地被要求进入实质和操作层面,有更明确的政治、经济、环境和社会意义,以及兼具有多极性、包容性和互利性,使得各方能够依据气候公平原则朝着务实合作的方向共同推动应对气候变化行动。该文试图从气候公平的价值基础和概念框架、气候公平的观点争论和谈判选择、气候公平的评价要素和实施方法等方面来全面阐释气候公平体系,并结合未来德班平台谈判的预期和步骤,全面看待"共区"原则在德班平台的适用问题,提出了权利公平、能力公平、效用公平和程序公平四项基本判据。同时,在气候公平视角下对当前的气候变化综合评估方法进行了重塑,构建了基于碳要素的公平系数,并通过基于模型的综合评估案例,对气候公平和效率问题进行了情景分析,结果表明如果不改善当前的气候公平状况,全球温室气体排放的不公平分配将可能达到1万亿t CO2当量,不公平分配的排放量将占到全球总排放量的1/3左右;如果综合权衡气候公平和效率,该方案每年将额外增加的成本约为全球生产总值的0.1%-0.5%。该文进一步根据上述基本判据和要素提出全球2050年不公平排放量减少50%、各国人均排放梯度趋同和阶段式峰值等长期目标,为后续德班平台谈判最终建立"改善气候公平"和"提高减排力度"并重和相称的气候制度提出了初步的设想。
Along with the 20-year negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the principle of climate equity is no longer just to stay within the theory and framework level, but more to step into the substantive and operational level, with a clearer political, economic, environmental and social significance and identity, and also multi-polar, inclusive and mutually beneficial, so that the Parties are capable of moving to the pragmatic cooperation to enhance actions guided by the principles of the climate equity. Here we attempted to explore the value basis and conceptual framework of climate equity, divergence debate,＇and negotiations options for climate equity, evaluation elements and implementation approaches to climate equity, with the combination Of the expectation and work plans of future negotiations, to comprehensively consider the principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities in Durban Platform, and proposed the Four Cardinal Principles of Equity on Rights, Capabilities, Utilities and Procedures. Based on the climate change integrated assessments remodeling from such equity perspectives and carbon factor theory, we also defined Carbon Equity Index, and have done the preliminary work for the climate efficiency and equity scenarios analysis. The results indicated that if we didn＇t improve the climate equity, the unfair allocation is approaching nearly one trillion tons of CO2e, and inequitable distribution of emissions accounted for about 1/3 of total global emissions; or if we harmoniously traded off the climate efficiency and equity, the solution would annually bring us an additional cost of about 0. 1% -0.5% of the global GDP. Here we further proposed the Global Goals for Carbon Inequity Reduction to 50% by 2050, and Gradient Convergence and Staged Peaking of Emissions per capita, to structure a preliminary idea for the balanced outcome for Durban Platform which is both appealing to ＇ Improve the Climate Equity＇ and ＇Enhance the Mitigation Ambition＇.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第6期1-7,共7页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家科技支撑计划课题"气候变化国际谈判与国内减排关键支撑技术研究与应用"(编号:2012BAC20B00)
国家社科基金重大项目"中国应对气候变化国家方案政策措施的关键问题研究"(编号:09&ZD029)
关键词
气候公平
碳公平
共同但有区别责任
德班平台
综合评估
climate equity
carbon equity
common but differentiated responsibilities
durban platform
integrated assessment
