摘要
基于国际耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)历史试验(historical)的输出结果,评估了26个耦合模式对北极涛动(AO)的模拟能力。对各模式逐月AO指数序列的功率谱分析表明,有23个模式能够模拟出AO模态无显著变化周期的特征。这些模式也能够较好地再现冬季AO在海平面气压场上的主要分布特征,但均高估了AO模态的强度。对于伴随着冬季AO位相变化而出现的中高纬度偶极型的纬向平均纬向风异常,CMIP5中只有一些模式有较好的模拟表现,大多数模式对其中心位置和强度的模拟存在明显不足。对比之下,MPI-ESM-P对AO时空特征的模拟更接近观测结果。
The temporal variability and spatial pattern of the Arctic Oscillation （AO） simulated in the historical experiment of 26 coupled climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIPS） were evaluated. Spectral analysis of the monthly AO time series indicates that 23 out of 26 of the CMIP5 models exhibit no statistically significant spectral peak in the historical experiment, as seen in the observed time series. Also, these models are able to reproduce the AO pattern in the sea level pressure anomaly field during boreal winter. But the strength of AO pattern tends to be overestimated in all the models. The zonal-mean zonal wind anomalies associated with the winter AO exhibit a dipole in latitude, which is only well reproduced by a few models. Most models show significant biases in both strength and location of the meridional dipole in the zonal-mean zonal wind anomaly filed associated with the winter AO. In considering the temporal variability as well as spatial structures in both horizontal and vertical directions, the model MPI-ESM-P reproduces an AO pattern that more resembles the observation.
出处
《气候变化研究进展》
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第3期157-164,共8页
Climate Change Research
基金
国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(2010CB950501
2010CB950404)
国家自然科学基金项目(41205058)
中国博士后科学基金项目(2012M510634)
关键词
北极涛动
模拟评估
耦合模式
CMIP5
Arctic Oscillation
model evaluation
coupled climate model
CMIP5
