摘要
就货币合同期、穿越期和稳定期三个阶段对国际经济学中货币贬值的“J曲线效应”理论进行了较深入的分析 ,指出在不同时期内决定贸易收支的关键因素是不同的 :在货币合同期 ,进出口合同所使用的货币是决定性因素 ;而在穿越期内 ,进出口商品的供给和需求弹性大小成为关键因素 ,从完全穿越到部分穿越均有可能发生 ;最后在稳定期 ,决定贸易收支的主要因素则是调整到位的弹性大小和补充经济政策的效果。由于各国的实际情况不同 ,因此并不能认为“J曲线”一定会出现 ,而且实证研究的资料也说明“J曲线”
This paper analyses the J curve effects of depreciation in currency contract period,pass through period and stead going period.The analysis shows that the factors determining the international balance are different in three different periods:in the currency contract period,the currency adopted in the contract of import and export trade is important;in the pass through period,the elasticity index of supply and demand of import or export commodities is the key either in the completed pass through period or in the partial pass through period;in the stead going period,the value of elasticity index and the effect of supplementary policies decide the balance of the trade.By the way,because of the differences between countries it can not be thought sure that J curve will emerge in any country,and the practical studies also prove that its emergence is not inevitable.$$$$
出处
《南京建筑工程学院学报》
2000年第3期19-30,共12页
Journal of Nanjing Architectural and Civil Engineering Institute(Natural Science)
关键词
J曲线效应
货币合同期
国际经济学
J-curve effects
currency contract period
pass-through period
stead-going period
depreciation
non-Walrasian equilibrium
