摘要
欧元作为一种新兴世界货币既在全球经济中发挥日益重要的作用,也是人民币汇率形成机制中的重要权重货币,由于欧盟是中国最大的贸易伙伴,故欧元兑人民币实际汇率变动对中欧贸易平衡产生重要影响。本文采用1999—2008年间欧元兑人民币汇率数据和中国与欧元区贸易季度数据构建VAR模型,并运用单位根检验、协整检验和脉冲响应函数的分析方法对欧元汇率变动对中欧贸易相对差额的影响进行实证分析。结果表明,人民币兑欧元的贬值初期会引起中国对欧元区贸易收支的短期恶化,但经过一段时间后由于我国对欧元区出口数量增加,贸易盈余趋于稳定,中国对欧元区贸易存在汇率贬值的"J曲线效应"。
The euro had played an important role in the world economy as a new global currency and EU was the biggest trade partner of China,meanwhile it had been also an important weighted currency in the RMB exchange rate system,so the floating rate of euro exchange to RMB had a vital impact on the bilateral trade balance.This paper built a VAR model based on the relevant quarterly data during 1999—2008,and used the unit root test and the Johansen test to have a stationary analysis.The results showed that the devaluation of RMB could improve China＇s trade balance with Europe,but China＇s trade income with euro became worse in short time.The trade balance became stable after a long time,so the J-curve effect between China and EU had been approved.
出处
《经济理论与经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第4期80-84,共5页
Economic Theory and Business Management
基金
国家社科基金项目(07GJB016)
上海市教委085知识创新工程项目(08509002)
关键词
欧元汇率
中欧贸易
VAR模型
J曲线效应
euro exchange rate
trade between Sino-EU
VAR model
J-curve effect
