摘要
滑坡演变表现出力学参数及力学现象具有明显的不确定性和随机性,使得滑坡位移变形分析成为工程技术难题之一.在传统的灰色GM(1,1)模型基础上,对误差修正方面运用模糊数学思维,采用GM(1,1)-Fuzzy-Markov模型对相对误差进行二次预测.在对云阳凉水井滑坡变形监测成果的分析中,上述模型在一定程度上避免了单一GM(1,1)理论无法预测波动性的局限,实现了较好的预测,整体精度进一步得到提高,证明了该模型在滑坡变形预测方面的可行性与适用性,为滑坡变形预测问题的解决提供了有益的思考与探索.
Landslide evolution displayed mechanical parameters and mechanical phenomenon have obvious un- certainty and randomness; so that the displacement of landslide deformation analysis has become one of the technical problems of engineering. In the traditional grey GM （ 1, 1） on the basis of the model, the error cor- rection using fuzzy mathematics thought, put forward by GM （ 1,1 ） -fuzzy-Markov model to predict relative error secondarily. For the cold water well in Yunyang landslide deformation monitoring results analysis, the model in a certain extent, to avoid a single GM （ 1, 1） theory cannot predict volatility limits to achieve better prediction; the overall accuracy is further improved. It is proved that the model for deformation prediction of landslide is feasible and applicable, so as to solve the problem of providing useful reflection and exploration.
出处
《三峡大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2013年第2期53-55,60,共4页
Journal of China Three Gorges University：Natural Sciences
基金
国家科技攻关项目(GYHY201006039)
关键词
滑坡
预测
灰色
模糊
马尔可夫链
landslide
prediction
grey
fuzzy
Markov chain
