摘要
目的分析南通市人口老龄化和老年人死因现状,预测未来变化趋势,为合理制定老年人卫生保健计划提供科学依据。方法用描述流行病学方法对2006-2009年的人口资料和居民死亡资料进行分析,建立灰色预测GM(1,1)模型,对南通市人口老龄化和老年人死因变化趋势进行预测。结果 2006-2009年,南通市平均老年系数为17.63%;预测2013年老年系数将超过20%,2030年将超过30%;≥60岁老年人死亡率为37.17‰;前5位死因依次是循环系统疾病(13.19‰)、恶性肿瘤(8.85‰)、呼吸系统疾病(5.56‰)、损伤和中毒(0.96‰)及消化系统疾病(0.78‰)。结论预测随着人口老龄化的发展,老年人循环系统疾病、恶性肿瘤的死亡率将持续上升。循环系统疾病、恶性肿瘤等疾病是老年人疾病预防与控制工作的重点,社会和政府有关部门应给予高度重视。
Objective To investigate the constitute and major death causes of the elderly people （over 60 years ） of Nantong City and forecast the changing trend of population aging and mortality, providing basis of dealing with the chal-lenge of aging society and establishing health policy and prevention measures for elderly people. Methods Demographic and death data from 2006 to 2009 were analyzed using descriptive epidemiology method. The grey prediction GM （ 1.1 ） model was established to forecast the trend of population aging and death cause. Results The average older coefficient was 17.63% from 2006 to 2009. The older coefficient was forecasted more than 20% in 2013 and more than 30% in 2030. The average mortality rate of elderly people aged 60 and above was 37.17%o. The first five major causes of death were cir-culatory system diseases （ 13.19‰）, malignant tumor （ 8. 85‰）, respiratory diseases （ 5.56‰）, injury and poisoning （0.96‰） and gastrointestinal disorders （0.78‰）. Conclusions We forecasted that the mortality of circulatory system diseases and malignant tumor in the elderly would continue to increase with the development of aging population. Circulato- ry system diseases and malignant tumor would be the focus of disease prevention and control in the elderly. The problem of serious population aging should be actively responded by the government and health departments.
出处
《中华疾病控制杂志》
CAS
北大核心
2013年第5期388-391,共4页
Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention
基金
江苏省预防医学科研资助项目(YZ201014)
