摘要
依据广东省港口的实际情况,结合已有的港口吞吐量预测理论,通过分析广东省沿海港口货物吞吐量序列数据,建立了GM(1,1)幂—指数预测模型,有效地提高了预测的精度和准确度。在此基础上,运用关联度的方法,并从定性的角度分析了广东省GDP、外贸进出口额、全社会的投资总额及能量的消耗总量等因素对预测结果造成的影响,并对预测的结果进行修正。
Based on the actual situation of the ports in Guangdong Province and considering the port throughput prediction theory, the research establishes the GM（1,1） power-index prediction model by analyzing coastal the port cargo throughput sequence data of Guangdong Province, which improves the prediction precision and accuracy for port the associated method to analyze the impact of the GDP volume, the total investment of the whole society, the total factors on the predicted results. At last, it amends the forecast throughput. On this basis, it uses of Guangdong, the foreign trade consumption of energy and other result from the qualitative angle.
出处
《海洋经济》
2013年第1期26-31,共6页
Marine Economy
基金
广东省自然科学基金项目"沿海港泊建设与货客进出口量平衡发展测度研究"(10152408801000012)
