摘要
为了响应国家沿海开发战略,明析江苏沿海港口物流与经济发展之间的关系,根据1988—2008年连云港市港口物流与经济发展的数据,利用协整理论及其分析软件,对连云港市港口物流与经济发展进行协整分析。通过协整检验发现,港口物流与经济发展之间存在长期的均衡关系;Granger因果检验表明,港口物流与经济发展之间存在单向的Granger因果关系,港口物流对经济发展有着正向的促进作用,反之则不成立;港口物流量每增加一个单位,经济量相应增加1.128个单位。
In order to support the National Coastal Development Strategy and clarify the relationship of port logistics and economic development in the coastal region of Jiangsu Province,based on the data of port logistics and economic development of Lianyungang from 1988 to 2008,the paper cointegrates both of them by the cointegration theory and Eviews software. The conclusions are as follows. Firstly,there exits the long-term equilibrium between port logistics and economic development by the cointegrating test. Secondly,according to the Granger causality test,there exits single Granger causality between port logistics and economic development, and port logistics has positive effects on economic development,whereas economic development has no positive effects on port logistics. Thirdly,when the amount of port logistics increases one unit,the quantity of economy will correspondingly increase 1.128 units.
出处
《科技与管理》
CSSCI
2009年第6期4-7,共4页
Science-Technology and Management
基金
盐城工学院2009年度科研项目(XKY2009107)
关键词
江苏沿海
港口物流
经济发展
协整分析
GRANGER因果检验
coastal region of Jiangsu province
port logistics
economic development
cointegration
Granger causality test
