摘要
基于2001年到2012年3月间的月度数据,本文选取通货膨胀率、国际粮食价格、外汇储备和固定资产投资作为指标,建立结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型,对影响通货膨胀率变化的各种因素进行结构分解,得到通货膨胀率变化对自身的影响程度,以及国际粮价、外汇储备和固定资产投资的变化对通货膨胀率的当期和长期影响结果。研究表明国际粮食价格只在短期内引起物价的波动,而外汇储备、固定资产投资在长期内对通货膨胀会产生稳定的影响。因此,加快建立外汇储备的运营管理机制,合理的控制粮食对外依存度,慎重地选取固定资产投资规模对于控制通货膨胀至关重要。
Based on the monthly data from 2001 to March 2012,we choose inflation rate,international food prices,foreign exchange reserve and fixed-assets investment as evaluation indexes to establish a SVAR model,and make the structural decomposition about influence factors of inflation rate,getting itself effect degree when inflation rate varied,as well as the current and long-term impact on the inflation rate results when international food prices,foreign exchange reserve and fixed-assets investment changed.As a result,international food prices will induce price fluctuations in the short term,however,foreign exchange reserve and fixed-assets investment will have a stabilizing influence on inflation in the long term.Therefore,we should set up the operation and management mechanism of foreign exchange reserve as quickly as possible,control the dependence on foreign food within a reasonable scope and select the scale of fixed-assets investment carefully,which are critical to curb inflation.
出处
《商业研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第5期1-6,共6页
Commercial Research
