摘要
在农业干旱风险分析模式中引入自然灾害风险分析的基本理论,系统剖析了农业干旱灾害风险分析的基本要素(致灾因子、孕灾环境和承灾体),结合自然灾害风险分析基本模式构建了农业干旱风险分析基本模式。根据人工神经网络构建了农业干旱风险分析模型,并应用于河南省农业干旱风险分析中。结果表明,该模型对河南省农业干旱具有一定模拟能力,其模拟误差约为20%;河南省农业干旱整体形势严峻,且随着农业干旱频率的减小其成灾面积损失呈指数趋势增加。
Basic theory of natural disaster risk analysis was brought into the risk analysis model of agricultural drought. And the risk factors were analyzed in the agricultural drought risk analysis, which included hazard factor, hazard inducing environment and hazard bearing body. Then, the risk analysis model of agricultural drought was built based on the risk analysis model of natural disaster and artificial neural network. Finally, it was applied to agricultural drought risk analysis in Henan Province. The result shows that the model could be used in the simulation of the drought in Henan Province well, and the error was at about 20%; on the other hand, the situation of agricultural drought risk would be serious in Henan Province; the loss of the inundated area of drought would increase exponentially with decreasing of agricultural drought risk frequency.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2013年第4期5-8,共4页
Water Resources and Power
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)基金资助项目(2010CB951102)
国家自然科学基金创新群体基金资助项目(51021066)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51209225)
科技部创新方法工作专项基金资助项目(2009IM020100)
关键词
农业干旱
风险分析模式
人工神经网络
河南省
agricultural drought
risk analysis model
artificial neural network
Henan Province
