摘要
基于系统动力学建模方法,应用DPSIRM因果网模型建立指标体系,构建黑河流域水资源管理模型,并仿真模拟了黑河流域甘州区3种不同的未来水资源管理模式。结果表明:①基于SD构建的DPSIR水资源评价模型能够有效地模拟研究区水资源系统;②水资源管理模式中,情景Ⅰ和情景Ⅱ在人口增长,经济发展以及水资源高效利用方面都有优化,情景Ⅲ的模拟结果:人口增长趋于稳定;得益于第三产业的贡献,经济增长明显加大,同期三次产业结构也比较科学合理;到2030年,需水量6.48亿m3小于潜在可利用水量7.98亿m3保证了地区的生态用水;灌区用水户的满意度,有利于节水型社会的全面建设;③情景Ⅲ以提高水资源管理绩效为主要目的,从提高研究区人口承载力、产业结构调整、水资源供需配置、提高工业用水效益、明晰水权水价方面优化了情景Ⅰ和情景Ⅱ的不足。情景Ⅲ水资源管理模型中指标体系所体现出的技术进步和管理方式,不仅仅是对未来甘州区节水型社会建设方向预测和提升,也是研究区未来人口、社会发展及水资源管理模式的最优方案。
Based on system dynamics modeling method, establish index system using the DPSIRM causal network model, and construction of heihe river basin water resources management model, then simulation the heihe river basin of Ganzhou district 3 different water management pattern in the future.The results show that：Based on SD of DPSIR model can effectively simulation study of water resources evaluation of area water resources system; In the three future water resources management mode, situational I and situational 1/ in population growth, economic development and water resources utilization are optimized, and based on the comprehensive of two modes, the results of scene llI ： Thanks to the contribution of the third industry, population growth tends to be stable; Economic growth increased significantly, GDP will be 90 400 yuan by 2030. Over the same period, the structure of three industries＇ ratio will be scientific and rational; By 2030, the water demand that 6.48 million m3is less than quantity of potential available water that 7.98 million m3. To ensure the region＇s ecological water, the satisfaction of irrigation water users is advantageous to the comprehensive construction of water-saving society; Scene II1 mainly aimed to improve water management performance. From raising population beating capacity in the study area, adjusting the industrial structure, configuration of supply and demand of water resources, improving industrial water efficiency, clarity of water tight and price, optimize the water scene I and 11. Scene 11 index system of water resource management model reflects the way of technological progress and management. Not just the direction prediction and ascension of construction of water-saving society of Ganzhou area in the future, also is the optimal solution of the future population, social development and water resources management model in the study area.
出处
《经济地理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第3期36-41,共6页
Economic Geography
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(40871061)
关键词
水资源管理
DPSIR概念模型
系统动力学
多目标情景仿真模拟
甘州区
water resources management
DPSIR concept model
system dynamic
multiple target scene analoguesimulation
Ganzhou district
