摘要
碳排放控制目标实现措施的制定,需要明确碳排放的影响因素。通过文献回顾的方式提炼了影响碳排放的主要因素,并通过路径分析测算各影响因素对碳排放的总影响、直接影响和间接影响,明确了影响机理。其中,能源消费量对碳排放的直接影响较大,GDP的直接影响较小,而总人口、能源消费结构主要通过GDP对能源消费量产生间接影响进而影响碳排放。在此基础上,通过协整检验构建误差修正模型(VEC)来分析GDP、能源消费总量对碳排放的具体影响。结果表明:能耗强度的降低,即降低能源消费总量,增加GDP,能够促进碳排放的减少。
The main factors influencing carbon emissions were refined by reviewing the literature, and their total, direct or indirect influence were calculated by the path analysis to clarify the influence mechanism specifically. Results indicated that GDP had the direct effect on the carbon emissions, and energy consumption had the smaller, while industrial structure, energy consumption structure as well as population influenced carbon emissions by GDP or energy consumption. Based on this, it did cointegration test and built VEC to analyze their specific impact on carbon emissions. According to it, to reduce energy consumption intensity, which means to reduce energy consumption or increase GDP, can contribute to reduce carbon emissions.
出处
《工业技术经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第2期72-80,共9页
Journal of Industrial Technological Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金(项目编号:70773027)
国家软科学研究计划项目(项目编号:2010GXQ5D327)
高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金项目(项目编号:20070217062)
黑龙江省哲学社会科学规划项目(项目编号:11A004)
