摘要
采用1998—2011年度数据,运用计量经济学Eviews6.0软件,根据平稳性检验、协整检验、误差修正和格兰杰因果关系检验等方法,对山东省农产品进出口与农业经济增长关系进行了实证分析,确立了农产品进、出口额与山东省农业经济增长之间的长期均衡和短期均衡关系。结果表明,山东省农产品进、出口额均与农业经济增长之间存在单向的格兰杰因果关系,但农业经济增长并不是山东省农产品进、出口的格兰杰原因。结合山东省农产品贸易与农业生产过程中存在的问题提出了政策建议,以使农产品贸易对农业经济增长的促进作用得到最好的发挥。
Based on the data during 1998~2011, the demonstration anlysis of the relationship between the export and import of agricultral products and the agricultural economy growth in Shandong province was established through the Unit Root Test, Cointergration Test, Vector Error correction and Granger Causality Test by Eviews6.0 of Economitrics. The long-term and short-term equilibrium relationship between the foreign trade of agricultral products and the agricultural economy growth in Sbandong province were calculated. The results show that, LNX and LNM are both the Granger cause of LNY, but LNY is not the Granger cause of LNX neither of LNM. The policy suggertions were put forward according to the problems exsiting in the foreigh trade of agricuhral products and production, so that the trade of agricultral products could best promot agriculture growth.
出处
《广东农业科学》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第2期205-209,共5页
Guangdong Agricultural Sciences
基金
中国农业大学烟台研究院校级课题(YT201118)
