摘要
目前,鲜有文献讨论开放经济中的中国财政政策及其规则。文章通过构建开放经济的宏观财政DSGE模型,基于我国的宏观经济数据,研究了开放经济中的财政政策规则及其经济效应,比较了不同规则的结果。文章采取贝叶斯估计方法进行数值模拟后发现:在开放经济中,财政政策的即期"乘数效应"相对较小;"连续支出规则"与"盯住产出规则"具有相似的产出效应,在开放经济中可利用"盯住产出规则"发挥政府的主导性;"严格"债务约束的政策效应类似"宽松"债务约束的政策效应,为充分利用资源可采取后一政策规则。
Currently,there is a lack of the literature of fiscal policies and their policy rules in China as an open economy. Through constructing a macro-financial dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in an open economy, this paper studies the fiscal policy rules and their economic effects in an open economy based on Chinese macro-economic data. It also makes a comparison of the effects of different fiscal policy rules. After making a numerical simulation by Bayesian estimation method, this paper arrives at the conclusions as follows： firstly, in an open economy, the immediate multiplier effects of fiscal policies are relatively small secondly, the rule of continuous spending is similar in output effects to the fiscal rule of pegging output thirdly, the fiscal policy rules with strict debt constraints is similar in output effects to the ones with easing debt constraints,and the latter can be adopted in order to take full advantage of resources.
出处
《财经研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第3期135-144,共10页
Journal of Finance and Economics
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(10YJC790416)
江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)
