摘要
根据淮河流域1961～2010年的月降水资料,用Z指数法分析了淮河流域旱涝灾害规律,并采用频率分析法分析了太阳黑子极值年附近的旱涝特征、Morlet小波分析淮河流域的旱涝指数和太阳黑子数时间序列之间的周期性和相关性。结果表明,Z指数能较好地反映淮河流域旱涝灾害的实际情况,且洪涝化程度随淮河流域旱涝事件频率增加而加大;淮河流域旱涝灾害与太阳活动有一定的对应关系,淮河水系地区分别在太阳黑子m、M年附近易发生涝灾、旱灾,旱涝指数约存在4、10、16年的主要周期;沂沭泗水系地区在太阳黑子M年附近易出现旱灾,旱涝指数约存在3、12、30年的主要周期,但局部时间段上有较明显的相关性,随时间段的不同,相关变化也不同。
According to the monthly rainfall data in the Huaihe Basin from 1961 to 2010,the Z index method is applied to analyze the law of drought/flood disaster.And frequency analysis is adopted to analyze drought/flood characteristics near the sunspot extreme years.Then the Morlet wavelet is used to analyze the periodicity and the correlation between the drought/flood index and sunspot number time series in the Huaihe Basin.The results show that the Z index can reflect the actual situation of drought/flood disasters in Huaihe Basin;with increase of the frequency of drought/flood events,the degree of flood increases in Huaihe Basin;the drought/flood disasters and solar activity have certain corresponding relationship;the Huaihe river system region occurs water logging and drought easily near the sunspot m and M years,and the drought/flood index has the main cycle with 4-year,10-year and16-year;while the Yishusi river system region occurs drought easily near the sunspot M years,and the index has the main cycle with 3-year,12-year and 30-year;but they have obvious correlation in local time interval;with different time interval,their correlation changes are different.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2013年第2期1-4,241,共5页
Water Resources and Power
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51109224)
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)基金资助项目(2010CB951102)
中国水科院科研专项基金资助项目(资集1001)
