摘要
选用2003年6月21日到7月11日梅汛期12次暴雨和9次非暴雨过程,对其天气形势、物理量进行了合成平均对比分析;结合副热带高压脊线和地面锋面的位置,利用T213的20:00格点资料,计算和绘制了暴雨日和非暴雨日的合成平均物理量场,分析两类天气的热力和动力条件特征,揭示了它们之间的差异,并在此基础上建立了暴雨短期预报的概念模式。
An analysis was made of 12 weather processes with rainstorms and 9 processes without rainstorms from 21 June to 11 July 2003. The synoptic patterns and physical quantities for the two kinds of processes were compared. The composite-average physical variables for the two kinds of weather processes were calculated, and the thermal and dynamical conditions were analyzed respectively using T213 grid data at 20：00, in combination with the position of the ridge line of Subtropical High and the position of the surface front. Based on the results, a concept prediction model for the short-range heavy rainfall was designed.
出处
《气象科技》
2005年第4期324-329,共6页
Meteorological Science and Technology
基金
江苏省科委"江苏省突发性高强度大暴雨预警服务系统研究"课题资助
