摘要
我国正在向着创新型国家的重要目标迈进,而目前严峻的就业形势也是政府特别关心的问题,在这个过程中,技术进步和劳动就业紧密联系在了—起。经验研究显示,中国的劳动就业对技术进步冲击的动态反应呈现显著"倒驼峰"形态以及强持久性特征,这是在理论上令人困惑的一个问题。为了解释这一"倒驼峰"动态,本文将劳动交易成本和选择性路径依赖这两种理论传导机制引入一个具有投资刚性特征的动态随机一般均衡模型,然后通过贝叶斯极大似然方法估计获得模型的结构参数。模拟实验发现,(1)我们构建的理论模型成功解决了劳动就业脉冲动态的"倒驼峰"之谜以及强持久性问题。(2)而且,基于理论模型的反事实模拟发现,中国劳动力市场的波动主要来源于需求冲击,这和基于SVAR模型的经验事实是一致的,这些结果都说明本文构建的两种理论机制较好体现了中国劳动力市场的结构特性,有效地解释了劳动力市场的相关经验特征。(3)为了使结论更加稳健,我们利用动态结构宏观模型和理论机制的最新评估技术DSGE-VAR(λ)对模型作了进一步评估,评估结果充分肯定了劳动交易成本和选择性路径依赖这两种理论机制,它们对于正确理解中国劳动力市场的动态特征具有显著理论意义,同时对于政府制定相关技术创新和劳动就业政策也有重要的政策启示。
China is now on the way to reaching an important objective of a creative country,and the serious employment situation is an important concern of the government.In this process,the technological improvement and the labor employment are tightly connected.The research on experience has indicated that the dynamic reaction of China s labor employment on the shock of technical progress has an obvious shape of an 'inverted hump(IH) and this reaction has a very marked persistent characteristic,which is,theoretically,a puzzling problem.In order to explain the dynamic of the IH,we have,in this paper,introduced the labor transaction cost and the selective road relying—the two kinds of mechanism of the theoretical conduction—to a general balance model with dynamic random and with the characteristic of the investment rigidity,and then,have obtained the structural parameter of the model by the use of the method of Bayesian MLE.By a stimulation test we have discovered that(1) the theoretical model constructed by us has successfully solved the puzzle of the IH of the pulse dynamic in the labor employment and the problem of high persistence;(2) based on finding of the counterfactual simulation of the theoretical model,the fluctuation of China's labor market mainly originates from the demand shock,which is consistent with the experience fact based on the SVAR model;all these results show that the two kinds of theoretical mechanism constructed by this article have better embodied the structural characteristic of China's labor market and have effectively interpreted the relative experience characteristics of the labor market;(3) in order to make the conclusion more robust,we have employed the macro model of the dynamic structure and the newest evaluation technique—DSGE-VAR analysis—to further make an estimation,the results of which have fully confirmed the two kinds of theoretical mechanism:the labor transaction cost and the relying of the selective path,and they have noticeable theoretical significance for correctly understand the dynamic characteristic of China' s labor market,and,at the same time,they have important policy enlightenment for the policy-making,of the government,in the innovation of the relative technique and in the labor employment.
出处
《管理世界》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第2期18-31,187,共14页
Journal of Management World
