摘要
多个国家经济发展实践表明,工业化进程中需求结构演进逻辑及与经济增长关系表现为:消费率呈现先下降后上升的"U型"曲线变化趋势,投资率和净出口率呈现先上升后下降的"倒U型"曲线变化趋势;需求结构演进逻辑反映经济增长需求动力演进逻辑,消费需求对经济增长的贡献程度由强变弱再变强,投资需求和净出口需求对经济增长贡献程度由弱变强再变弱;经济增长率上升与消费率下降、投资率和净出口率上升相伴随,工业化中期阶段的经济增长率水平相对较高,后工业化阶段和工业化初期阶段的经济增长率水平相对较低。1978年以来,中国经济增长过程中的需求结构演进及与经济增长关系符合工业化初中期阶段需求结构演进逻辑,经济增长绩效较好。现实条件下,调整需求结构促进中国经济持续均衡增长的重点在于:依赖提高消费需求增强经济增长的持续性及稳定性,依赖适度的投资需求和出口需求扩张、优化投资结构和出口结构以保持一定的经济增长速度。
According to the practice of economic development in many countries, the evolution logic of demand structure and the relationship with economic growth in the process of industrialization show that, the consumption rate presents downward and then upward, as ＂U -shaped＂ curve, the investment rate and net export rate present upward and then downward, as ＂inverted U - shaped ＂curve; The evolution logic of demand structure reflects the evolution logic of demand power for economic growth. Economic growth stimulated by consumer demand goes from strength to weakness then to strength, and stimulated by investment demand and net export demand go from weakness to strength then to weakness; Increasing of economic growth rate accompanied by decreasing of consumption rate and increasing of investment rate and net export rate. The level of economic growth rate in the middle stage of industrialization is higher than the level of economic growth rate in the post - industrial stage and in the early stages of industrialization. Since 1978, China＇s demand structure evolution and the relationship with economic growth are in line with the evolution logic of the primary - middle stage of industrialization. Under realistic conditions, the focus to adjust the demand structure for Chinese sustainable and balanced economic growth is to rely on increasing consumer demand to enhance the stability and continuity of economic growth, and to rely on moderate expanding of investment demand and export demand, optimizing investment structure and export structure to maintain the economic growth rate.
出处
《社会科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第2期44-53,共10页
Journal of Social Sciences
基金
作者主持的教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“开放条件下中国经济增长的需求约束及突破机制研究(项目编号:11YJA790058)”的阶段性研究成果
关键词
需求结构
演进逻辑
经济持续均衡增长
Demand Structure
Evolution Logic
Sustainable and Balanced Economic Growth
