摘要
根据1992—2010年的吉林省农村居民消费统计数据,从消费水平、消费结构2个角度对吉林省农村居民的消费现状进行了分析,并以2001—2010年为预测的样本区间,利用灰色预测模型对吉林省2011—2020年的吉林省农村居民消费水平、消费结构进行了预测。结果显示:从总体上看,吉林省农村消费增长仍有较大空间,家庭经营消费、衣着消费、居住消费和医疗消费将出现大幅增长;从生活消费的结构比例看,农村居民的恩格尔系数和交通与通讯消费比例将进一步下降,而居住消费的比例则可能大幅上升。衣着消费和医疗消费的比例可能有小幅度增长,家用设备消费和娱乐、教育、旅游消费的比例将基本保持稳定。
With the data of rural consumption in Jilin province from 1992 to 2010,this paper analyzed the status quo of rural consumption from the perspectives of consumption level and structure,forecasted rural consumption level and structure from 2011 to 2020 with the sample data of rural consumption from 2001 to 2010 through gray prediction model.The results show that rural consumption in Jilin province has much greater potential to increase,especially household operational expenditure,clothes expenditure,housing consumption and medicare expenditure etc.in general;in terms of rural consumption structure,the proportion of food,travel and communication expenditure will decrease further while the proportion of housing consumption may increase sharply.The proportion of expenditure in clothes and medicare may fall down mildly,however,the expenditure in household equipment,entertainment,education and tour will keep stable.
出处
《吉林农业大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第1期111-120,共10页
Journal of Jilin Agricultural University
基金
吉林省科技发展计划项目(20100614)
安华农业保险公司项目(2010)
关键词
农村居民
消费水平
消费结构
消费趋势
吉林省
rural resident
consumption level
consumption structure
consumption trend
Jilin province
