摘要
2010年以来,我国经济增速下行,通胀压力显著,房地产价格高位欲涨,地方政府债务压力增大,在欧债危机的背景下,引发了人们对宏观经济基础的担忧。本文通过对我国中央和地方政府债务投向的分解,对中国政府部门和公有部门资产负债表的构建,以及对投资回报率的详细测算后发现:(一)地方政府的负债主要投向周期长、外部性大的基础设施,由于我国基础设施依然落后,这些投资总体上具有合理性;(二)中央地方收支倒挂的财政体制,导致地方财政收入不足,而地方政府"短债长投",导致短期偿债压力过大,是地方债压力的财政和金融根源;(三)政府和公有部门的资产负债表总体健康,资产负债率较低,即便考虑了可能面临的隐性债务,债务风险仍然可控;(四)工业资本回报率处于上升趋势,近年来保持在高位,潜在投资需求旺盛,内生性紧缩的风险不大。总体上,本文分析显示我国宏观经济基本面良好,在通胀压力趋缓,宏观调控趋松的情况下,经济增速有望回升。
The slowdown of China＇s economy since 2010, together with resilient inflation pressure, booming housing prices, and rising local government debt burden raise concerns about＇： China＇s macroeconomic fundamentals. These concerns are especially worrisome in the background of European sovereign debt crisis and global economic recession. In this paper, we decompose the investment direction of China＇ s central and local government debt, build up the balance sheet of China＇s government and public sector, and measure the capital return carefully. Our analysis shows that： （1） Local government debt is mainly invested in infrastructures, which China still lags far behind. Overall, these investments are economically sensible. （2） Local government debt burden is mainly due to deficiencies in the current fiscal and financial system. Local governments are responsible for infrastructure investments. However, they have neither fiscal income nor long -term financing instruments. Therefore, they have to borrow short -term debt to finance long -term investments, which enlarge short tern repaying burden and financial risk. （3） The debt ratio of China＇s government and public sector is lower than most developed and developing economies. It is also lower than China＇s historical high. In addition, China＇s fast economic growth should imply higher debt capacity. Overall, China＇s public debt risk is manageable, even considering possible implicit public debt that China will face. （4） China＇ s capital return is on an increasing trend since 1998 and remains high in 2011, which implies high investment demand and low risk of deflation and endogenous contraction. We expect China＇ s economic growth to rebound when inflation pressure wanes and macro tightening loosens.
出处
《南方经济》
CSSCI
2013年第1期14-34,共21页
South China Journal of Economics
