摘要
选取在国家区域发展战略中具有优先地位的西部地区作为研究对象,首先应用脱钩理论对西部地区1995—2010年碳排放与经济增长特征进行分析,进而构建碳排放模型深入研究其驱动因素。结果显示:所研究年份间除1998—1999年为强脱钩,2003—2006年为扩张性负脱钩之外,其余时期均呈现为弱脱钩状态;经济规模的高速增长是导致碳排放增加的主要因素,经济结构的调整变化对碳排放的减少有很大潜力,能源利用效率的提高是抑制碳排放减少的关键因素,能源结构的优化是控制碳排放增加的潜在因素;弱脱钩状态下,产业结构、能源强度和能源结构影响碳排放的幅度较小,在强脱钩状态下则更小,而在扩张性负脱钩时三者所占比例同步提高。
The paper selects the Western Region as the research object for which has priority in national regional development strategy, first use decoupling theory to analysis the characteristics of carbon emissions and economic growth in Western Region during the period 1995-2010,and then construct a model of carbon emissions to deeper research the driving factors.Results reveal that from 1996 to 2010,in most years it shows a week decoupling, except for the period of 1998 to 1999 is a strong decoupling and 2003 to 2006 is a expansionary negative decoupling; The rapid growth of economic scale is a major factor leading to increased carbon emissions; The adjustments and changes of economic structure or regional structure has great potential to reduce carbon emissions,; The energy use efficiency is a key factor in reducing carbon emissions; The energy structure optimization is a potential factors that control carbon emissions; At the condition of weak decoupling, the factors of industry structure, energy intensity and energy structure has a small margin to carbon emissions, and the margin at the strong deeoupling is even smaller, while in the expansionary negative decoupling the proportion of the three factors are rising simultaneously.
出处
《经济地理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第12期34-39,共6页
Economic Geography
关键词
碳排放
脱钩
驱动因素
西部地区
carbon emissions
decoupling
driving factors
Western Region
