摘要
保持一定数量的耕地资源是实现区域粮食安全的重要保障。以黑龙江省宝泉岭垦区为研究区,从耕地压力角度出发,采用耕地压力指数模型,基于商品粮基地具有向国家提供商品粮的特殊地位,综合考虑国家粮食安全和区域粮食安全的关系,对1989—2008年宝泉岭垦区耕地与粮食生产状况进行了分析,运用时间序列、灰色系统模型及DPS数据处理系统软件,对2011—2020年宝泉岭垦区的粮食安全状况进行了预测。结果表明:20a来宝泉岭垦区粮食一直处于安全状态,宝泉岭垦区粮食安全动态变化情况大致分为三个不同阶段:1989—2000年耕地压力指数波动上升,2001—2003年耕地压力指数下降,2004—2008年耕地压力指数波动上升。在未来10a,在满足商品率为91%的条件下,年末总人口、耕地面积、粮食总产量逐年增加,耕地压力指数持续降低,在满足区域粮食安全的基础上,粮食商品率有很大的提升空间。最后,提出继续加强政策支持力度、依靠科技进步、严格保护耕地等建议以进一步提高宝泉岭垦区的粮食生产能力。
Keeping a certain quantity of cultivated land resources is an important guarantee of achieving regional food security.The state of grain production with the model of cultivated land pressure index from the perspective of cultivated land pressure in Baoquanling reclamation was analyzed from 1989 to 2008.It also forecasted the state of food security in the years from 2011 to 2020 by using the time series,the grey method and the tools of DPS.Results showed that Baoquanling Reclamation Area has been in food security state in recent 20 years.Dynamic changes of food security in Baoquanling Reclamation Area can be divided into three stages： gradual rise of cultivated land pressure index from 1989 to 2000,decrease from 2001 to 2003 and gradual rise from 2004 to 2008.In the coming 10 years,under the condition of commodity rate of 91%,total population of the end of year,cultivated land area,grain output will rise year by year,cultivated land pressure index will decline continually and the commodity rate of food will have much more room foe improvement.At the end,the paper proposed suggestions on strengthening policy support,depending on scientific support and protecting cultivated land strictly to increase grain production ability of Baoquanling Reclamation Area.
出处
《水土保持研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第6期223-227,共5页
Research of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
国家自然科学基金(41071346)
黑龙江省青年学术骨干项目(1154G45)
关键词
耕地变化
粮食安全
耕地压力指数
宝泉岭垦区
cultivated land change
food security
cultivated land pressure index
Baoquanling reclamation area
