摘要
运用回归分析方法、预测理论、最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数模型及Excel软件,在分析浙江省改革开放以来耕地、人口、粮食动态变化的基础上,分析了最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数的变化特点,运用预测理论对未来15年耕地、人口、粮食、最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数进行了预测。研究结果显示：1978~2004年,浙江省耕地面积、粮食产量呈下降趋势,人口数量逐年增加,从而造成最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数呈现增大趋势。这表明此期粮食供需差距越来越大。在未来15年,人口数量进一步增加,耕地和人均耕地面积降低明显,最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数却呈降低趋势,这依赖于耕地生产力水平的提高,但耕地仍严重超载,粮食安全问题仍将十分突出,形势比较严峻。据此提出降低耕地压力、保证粮食生产安全、促进可持续发展的对策。
By using regression analysis and prognostic theory, the minimum cropland acreage per capita, and cropland pressure index model were analyzed with the consideration of changes in cropland, population and grain output since enforcement of the reforming policy. The cropland, population, grain output, minimum cropland acreage per capita and cropland pressure index were forecasted for the following 15 years. It was found that between 1978 and 2004 both the cropland and the grain output declined in contrast to the annual population growth, resulting in the rise of minimum cropland acreage per capita and pressure index on cropland,and consequently broadening the gap between the grain supply and need. With the rising population and the obvious decline of cropland acreage per capita in the following 15 years, minimum cropland acreage per capita and pressure index on cropland will also show some degree of decline. However, the boost of cropland productivity is at the cost of over exploitation on the cropland, leaving the grain issue still quite critical. Thus, countermeasures for the reduction of cropland pressure, guarantee of grain output security and sustainable development were proposed in this paper.
出处
《长江流域资源与环境》
CAS
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第4期466-470,共5页
Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(40571002)
关键词
耕地变化
最小人均耕地面积
耕地压力指数
粮食安全
浙江省
cropland change
minimum cropland acreage per capita
pressure index on cropland
grainsecurity
Zhejiang Province
