摘要
针对河川径流时序所具有的非线性与非平稳性特征,运用消除趋势波动分析法(Detrended Fluctuation Analysis,DFA)对长江上游控制性水文站—宜昌站1878～2001年的月均流量时序的演化特征进行了研究,以揭示该流域河川径流的长程相关性及其内在规律性。结果表明:长江上游河川径流时序波动具有长程相关性,且其标度指数具有显著的区域性,即在短时间尺度上具有强烈的正持续性,在长时间尺度上具有强烈的负持续性,且其正持续性至多可持续19个月,显示了长江上游流域产汇流系统演化具有复杂的物理机制。
In accordance with the non-linear and non-steady features of the river runoff time series, the evolvement characteristics of the time series of the monthly average flow rates from 1878 to 2001 of Yichang Hydrological Station a control station on the Upper Yangtze River is studied herein based on the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis（DFA） , so as to reveal the long-range corre- lation of the fiver runoff within the river basin and its inherent law. The result shows that the fluctuation of the river runoff time se- ries of the Upper Yangtze River has a long-range correlation and its scaling index has obvious regionality, i. e. a strong positive durative is on a short time scale there, while a strong negative durative is there on a long time scale, moreover, the positive can only continue for 19 months at the longest; which shows a complicated physical mechanism of the evolvement of the runoff and convergence system within the basin of the Upper Yangtze River.
出处
《水利水电技术》
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第11期1-3,共3页
Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金创新研究群体科学基金(51021004)
国家自然科学基金(50879051)
水利部公益性行业科研专项(201101016)
关键词
长江上游
宜昌
径流
长程相关性
DFA
Upper Yangtze River
Yichang
runoff
long-range correlation
Detrended Fluctuation Analysis
