摘要
为提高含腐蚀缺陷管道安全评价的可靠性,建立一种概率评价方法。分析3种常用的含腐蚀缺陷管道评价准则(NG-18,B31G及PCORRC评价准则),对比评价准则表达式中的鼓胀因子。引入可靠性理论,利用蒙特卡洛模拟技术,研究管道可靠度随缺陷尺寸变化的规律,以及通过敏感性分析,对比评价参数对管道安全可靠性的影响,并进行排序,建立含腐蚀缺陷管道评价准则的概率评价方法。在3种评价准则中,影响管道安全可靠性的关键参数均为管材力学性能的分散性。运行压力的波动,对管道的可靠性也有较大影响。
A kind of probabilistic assessment method was worked out in order to improve the reliability of the safety assessment of corroded pipeline.Three corroded pipeline assessment criteria including NG-18,B31G and PCORRC were compared,and their bulging factors were analyzed.Based on the comparison results,a probabilistic assessment method was worked out for the corroded pipeline.The variation trends of reliability of corroded pipeline with the defect size were discussed using Monte-Carlo simulation method.Furthermore,a sensitivity analysis method was worked out to rank the influences of assessment parameters on the reliability.A determination method of critical defect size was worked out.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第9期57-62,共6页
China Safety Science Journal
关键词
腐蚀缺陷
油气管道
鼓胀因子
概率评价
敏感性分析
corrosion
pipeline
bulging factor
probabilistic assessment
sensitivity analysis
