摘要
本文总结了害虫预测预报四个不同时期(经验预测、实验预测、统计预测及信息预测)常用的预测预报方法;概述了惯性原则下的害虫可预测预报科学依据,借助Logistic方程分析了害虫种群系统发生发展最终呈现混沌性的规律;根据害虫种群混沌系统中非线性及线性共存的特点,提出了害虫预测预报方法中运用复合模型理论的改进设想。
This article summarizes the four different periods of the pest forecasting（empirical prediction,experimental forecast,statistics,forecasts and information to predict） commonly used forecasting methods It gives an overview of the inertia principle of pest forecasting scientific basis,and with the logistic equation analysis pest populations of the occurrence and development of the final presentation of the chaotic nature of the law.According to the characteristics of nonlinear and linear co-exist in the chaotic system of the pest populations,it suggests that pest forecasting methods use a composite model theory for improvement.
出处
《安徽科技学院学报》
2012年第5期28-32,共5页
Journal of Anhui Science and Technology University
基金
国家农业开发土地治理基金(国农办〔2012〕3号
农发项〔2012〕13号)
关键词
预测方法
预测原理
LOGISTIC方程
混沌性
复合模型
Forecasting methods
Forecasting principle
Logistic equation
Chaotic characteristics
Composite model
