摘要
运用浙江省天台县病虫观测站1969—2009年的测报历史资料进行了晚稻褐飞虱发生关键因子筛选与回归预测研究。结果表明:影响褐飞虱主害代发生量的关键因子主要是上一代褐飞虱的发生量、2～3代灯下诱虫量、水稻前期的田间发生率。逐步回归研究结果,连作晚稻9月下旬褐飞虱发生量(Y1)逐步回归方程Y1=-8.9742-0.2484X1+0.5705X3-0.4806X4+0.0309X9+0.24205X10;连作晚稻10月下旬褐飞虱发生量(Y2)逐步回归方程Y2=0.74638+0.3303X1-0.28X2-1.3136X3+1.7233X4-0.2762X10+0.7946X11;单季稻8月下旬褐飞虱田间发生量(Y3)逐步回归方程Y3=4.1037+0.64817X2-1.564X4+1.4128X6+0.1762X7-0.0238X8+0.0752X9;单季稻9月下旬褐飞虱发生量(Y4)逐步回归方程Y4=2.2717+0.3217X1-0.4132X2+0.3418X4+0.3458X5+0.6962X10;逐步回归方程可作为褐飞虱发生趋势中短期预报应用,在生产应用过程中,应注意结合水稻当家品种的抗虫性变化和主治药剂防治效果与抗药性变化等情况作适当调整。
Based on historical data of pest observatory in Tiantai County, Zhejiang province from years 1969 to 2009, the key factors affected on rice brown planthopper （Nilaparvata lugens Still） were analyzed using stepwise regression prediction. The results showed that the key factors affected the amount of the occurrence incidence of rice brown planthopper on the generation which caused the most damage on rice were mainly depended on the amount of incidence of brown planthopper from its last generation, the amount on behalf of the lamp luring from 2-3 generations, the amount of the incidence from rice field in early stage of rice growth. The stepwise regression formulas were calculated for different rice cropping systems at different month on rice growth seasons. On the double rice cropping system, the stepwise regression equation is Y1=-8.9742- 0.2484X1 ＋ 0.5705X3- 0.4806X4 ＋ 0.0309X9 ＋ 0.24205X2o for the amount of incidence occurred in late September, and Y2 = 0.74638 ＋ 0.3303X1 - 0.28X2 - 1.3136X3 ＋ 1.7233X4- 0.2762X10＋ 0.7 946X11 for the amount of incidence of brown planthopper occurred in late October. On the single rice cropping system, Y3 = 4.1037 ＋ 0.64817X2 - 1.564X4 ＋ 1.4128X6 ＋ 0.1762X7 - 0.0238X8 ＋ 0.0752X9 for the amount of incidence occurred in late August, and Y4 = 2.2717 ＋ 0.3217X1- 0.4132X2 ＋ 0.3418X4 ＋ 0.3458X5 ＋ 0.6962X10 for the amount of incidence of brown planthopper occurred in late September. Stepwise regression equations can be used as the occurrence trend of short-term forecasting applications on rice brown planthopper. Appropriate adjustments should be considered during the production application process depending on rice varieties with insect resistance changes and indications of insecticide-resistance to change of control effect.
出处
《中国农学通报》
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第12期227-232,共6页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
浙江省台州市重大课题"稻褐飞虱灾变暴发因子及生态防控技术研究"(计划编号062KY01)
关键词
褐飞虱
关键因子
逐步回归
预测
rice brown planthopper （Nilaparvata lugens Stal）
key factor analysis
stepwise regression prediction
forcasting
