摘要
在欧亚国家决定联手打造"新丝绸之路",中国政府高度重视"新丝绸之路"发展,学术界又很关注交通基础设施与经济增长关系研究的宏观大背景下,运用动态计量经济学的协整理论和格兰杰因果关系检验法,对1980-2010年"新丝绸之路"经济带交通基础设施投资与经济增长的关系进行了平稳性检验、VAR模型及脉冲响应分析、协整关系及格兰杰因果关系检验。研究结果表明,经济带交通基础设施投资与经济增长保持着长期的协整关系,经济增长引致了交通基础设施投资的增长,而交通基础设施投资的增长又促进了经济增长。
The thesis analyzed the relationship between investment on transportation infrastructure and economic growth of the New Silk Road economic belt in 1980-2010 according to the stationary test,VAR model and pulse response analysis,cointegration and Granger causality against the macro major background of Asian and Eurasian countries jointly launch the New Silk Road,the government pay full attention to it＇s development and academic circles are very concerned about the relationship between transportation infrastructure and economic growth.The results of analysis indicated that transportation infrastructure investment and economic growth had long ties to Granger causality,the growth of transportation infrastructure investment because of economic growth,economic growth promoted the growth of transportation infrastructure investment.
出处
《统计与信息论坛》
CSSCI
2012年第10期64-70,共7页
Journal of Statistics and Information
基金
陕西省社会科学基金项目<公共财政视角下促进城乡统筹发展政策的效应研究>(11EO33)
陕西省教育厅科学研究项目<新经济地理视角下地方政府竞争与区域经济协调发展问题研究--以西部地区为例>(12JK0150)
陕西省2012年科技计划项目<陕西省财政支出结构与城乡收入差距关系的实证研究>(2012KRM111)
关键词
新丝绸之路
交通基础设施投资
经济增长
VAR模型
脉冲响应分析
协整分析
the New Silk Road
transportation infrastructure investment
economic growth
VAR model
pulse response analysis
Cointegration analysis
