摘要
目的开展传染病的风险评估,确定现有条件下需优先控制的传染病,为制定适合的卫生管理政策提供科学依据。方法采用Delphi法,通过专家评分确定准则层因素;采用层次分析法(AHP)评估各类传染病的风险程度,构建风险模型,按照相对重要程度进行定量赋值建立其风险的判断矩阵,计算出各层权重及总权重,并进行排序,得出不同传染病的风险优先级别。结果松江区世博期间风险最大的传染病为手足口病,其次为感染性腹泻,其他传染病的风险优先级别依次为麻疹、霍乱、淋病、肺结核、细菌性痢疾、流行性感冒、甲肝和急性出血性结膜炎。结论根据识别出的10种传染病的风险优先级别采用不同的方针,防控措施既有针对性又有侧重点,以利于快速、准确、高效地应对可能出现的重大传染病突发公共卫生事件,防止疫情扩散,最大限度地减少世博会期间松江区传染病的发病风险。
Objective Carrying out infectious disease risk e- valuation to identify the prime infectious disease that need to be controlled, and to provide scientific materials for health management policy establish- ment. Methods Firstly, Delphi method is used to identify the factors of the criterion layer, secondly, we evaluate their risk extent by using analytic hierarchy process （AHP） and formulate the risk model. By using the risk model to assign weight to each layer factors according to their relative im- portance, finally the total weight of each infectious disease is calculated and ranked. Results Among the 10 infectious diseases, hand foot mouth dis- ease is the highest risk rank, the following risk ranks for the other 9 infec- tious diseases are measles, cholera, gonorrhea, tuberculosis, bacillary dysen- tery, influenza, hepatitis A and acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis respective- ly. Conclusion Implementing pertinent control and prevention measures according to each infectious disease risk rank is beneficial. By exploring good emergency response preparation, we can response to infectious disease outbreak or epidemic quickly, correctly and effectively which will prevent the spread of infectious diseases and reduce the epidemic risk in Songjiang district during Shanghai Expo.
出处
《中国卫生统计》
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第5期664-666,共3页
Chinese Journal of Health Statistics
关键词
AHP
世博会
传染病
风险评估
Analytic hierarchy process
Expo~ Infec-tious disease
Risk evaluation
