摘要
2010年以来,在国家严厉的、密集的调控政策下,各大城市房地产市场运行绩效表现出差异性,但也显示地方反弹的压力。因而,如何做到调控精准化、差别化和决策科学化需要房地产重点监控区域划分的理论与方法研究。本文以房价与地价波动及其关系的表现形式为依据,提出工作假说——房价地价关系与全国基本一致的城市,其房价波动偏离全国房价波动均值的程度也较小,以此作为划分重点监控区域的标准或方法。然后利用全国及35个大中城市的房屋销售价格指数与土地交易价格指数,通过Granger因果关系检验得出,与全国层面房价地价关系短期内双向互动影响一致的城市有26个;运用均值、方差与离散系数等描述性统计得出,与全国层面房价地价关系的短期效应一致的城市,2010年以来其新建住宅价格指数和二手住宅价格指数离散系数普遍小于均值,而海口、杭州、深圳等城市应成为房地产调控政策实施监控的重点;单个样本t检验表明,新建住宅市场与二手房市场的差异较大,而后者与全国层面房价地价关系的短期效应一致的城市较少,今后国家宏观调控政策应重点关注二手房市场。总体而言,把握各城市与全国层面房价地价关系的短期效应一致性以及差异性,是房地产分区域、分市场、分类差别化与精准化调控体系的基础。
Since 2010 the real estate market has undergone intensive policy regulation in China. Under these strict real estate policies the performance of real estate markets varies from city to city. Real estate market regulation now faces problems from price rebounds resulting from local pressure and the challenge remains as to how best regulate the market while making decisions scientifically. Our aim in this study is to provide a method to determine the division of key cities of control over the real estate market and segmentation. We established the hypothesis that if one city’ s relationship between housing price and land price is basically in accordance with the national relationship, its fluctuation in housing prices deviates less from the national mean. First, using data from 35 major cities we conducted a Granger causality test in order to discuses relationships between land price and housing price for each city across different periods and directions. Second, we analyzed short term effects on the price index of real estate sales since 2010. Our findings supported the hypothesis above, that a city with a low coefficient of variation basically follows the national rule for the relationship between housing prices and land prices. We also found a significant difference between the new residence market and second-hand real estate market and attention should now be given to the second-hand real estate market via national macro-control policy. It is important for the Chinese government to grasp the consistencies and differences in the short-term effects of housing-land price relationships between these 35 major cities, and the nation. The approach presented here is an important contribution different from the present official monitoring methods of the real estate market. Future policy should emphasize accurate classified control.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第10期1871-1880,共10页
Resources Science
基金
教育部哲学社会研究重大课题攻关项目(编号:11JZD031)
国家自然科学基金(编号:71073134)
中央高校基本科研业务费-南京农业大学人文社会科学研究基金(编号:SKHQ2011026)
江苏省青蓝工程"土地经济与管理方向"科技创新团队项目
关键词
房地产调控
房价与地价关系
差别化
市场细分
新建住宅市场
二手房市场
Real estate control
Housing prices
Land prices
Market segmentation
New residential market
Second-hand residential market
