摘要
利用RegCM3模式输出的东北三省1951—2100年日平均温度和最低温度,分析了东北三省热量资源和玉米不同生育期温度适宜度的时空分布.结果表明:1951—2100年,东北地区热量资源显著增加,稳定通过10℃初日不断提前,初日在4月25日之前的区域北界向东向北扩展,2071—2100年辽宁部分地区初日已提前至3月26日;≥10℃活动积温大于3000℃·d的区域面积不断增加,玉米的生长季长度不断增加,适宜种植晚熟玉米的区域面积不断增加.与1981—2010年相比,2011—2100年,东北三省年均温度将平均升高3.34℃.1951—2100年,玉米播种-出苗期以及出苗-抽雄期的温度适宜度随时间逐渐升高;1951—2040年,辽宁省玉米抽雄-成熟期以及全生育期的温度适宜度较高,而黑龙江省较低;2041—2100年,辽宁省玉米抽雄-成熟期以及全生育期的温度适宜度逐渐降低,吉林省东部和黑龙江省呈逐渐增加的趋势.
This paper analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of thermal resources and of temperature suitability of maize at its different growth stages in Northeast China,based on the 1951-2100 daily mean and minimum air temperature from RegCM3.In 1951-2100,the thermal resources in Northeast China had an obvious persistent increase,the first day of temperature ≥10 ℃ continued to be advanced,and the north boundary line in the zone of the first date of temperature ≥10 ℃ before April 25th moved eastward and northward.In 2071-2100,the first date in some areas of Liaoning Province would advance to March 26th,and the areas with active accumulated temperature ≥10 ℃ more than 3000 ℃·d,the length of growth season,and the areas suitable for late-maturing maize planting in Northeast China would increase persistently.In the region,the mean annual temperature in 2011-2100 would be 3.34 ℃ higher than that in 1981-2010.In 1951-2100,there was and would be an increasing temperature suitability of maize at its sowing-heading stage.In 1951-2040,the maize temperature suitability at heading-maturing stage and in whole growth season was and would be higher in Liaoning Province than in Heilongjiang Province;in 2041-2100,the maize temperature suitability at heading-maturing stage and in whole growth season would decrease gradually in Liaoning Province but increase gradually in east Jilin Province and Heilongjiang Province.
出处
《应用生态学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第10期2786-2794,共9页
Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology
基金
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201106020)
中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF-09-12)资助
关键词
中国东北地区
热量资源
玉米
温度适宜度
Northeast China
thermal resources
maize
temperature suitability.
