摘要
本文的老年家庭照料需求成本预测模型及调查数据分析表明,我国21世纪上半叶生活自理能力残障老人增速明显高于整体老年人口,高龄残障老人增长大大快于中低龄者,身边无子女残障老人增长明显快于有子女者,残障老人家庭照料成本总额占GDP百分比增速很快。模拟预测对比分析表明,在现行生育政策不变方案下,我国2030年与2050年平均每位劳动者负担的老年家庭照料现金支出分别至少等于2000年的3.0—4.1倍与6.8—12.6倍,比普遍允许二孩与提倡适当晚育方案高很多。本文建议尽快启动二孩晚育软着陆。本文还对死亡率和老年生活自理能力状态转换概率的可能变化对老年照料需求成本的影响进行了分析。
The analyses presented in this article are based on our newly developed model for projecting the home-based care needs and costs for elderly and the recent survey data. The results show that in the first half of this century, the numbers of ability of daily living （ADL） disabled elderly will increase more rapidly than that of the total elders; disabled oldest-old will increase much faster than that of young-old; disabled elderly without children will increase more rapidly than those living with children; and the annual growth rate of the percent of GDP devoted to home-based care costs for disabled elders rises substantially faster than that of the annual growth rate of the total number of disabled elderly persons. Based on the policy scenarios, our comparative analysis show that, under the scenario of retaining current mainly-one-child fertility policy unchanged, the average burden of home-based care costs for disabled elders per labor （persons aged 18--64） in 2030 would be at least 3.0--4. 1 times as large as that in 2000, and the 2050 average burden per labor would be at least 6. 8-- 12.6 times as large as that in 2000, much higher than that under the two-child with late childbearing policy scenario. Thus, we propose China to start the soft-landing of the two-child with late childbearing policy as soon as possible. We also discuss the effects of possible changes in mortality and the trends in probabilities of the elderly ADL status transitions on elderly home-based care needs and costs in the future in China.
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第10期134-149,共16页
Economic Research Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金国际合作重大项目(项目批准号:71110107025)
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(2009JJD790001)资助
