摘要
选取1978—2010年我国货币供给水平(M1)和国内生产总值(GDP)数据进行实证研究,通过建立VEC模型从货币供给量波动的角度深入研究货币供给量对经济增长的调控作用的有效性。研究结果表明:货币供给扩张虽然短期内对经济的增长会起到"立竿见影"的刺激作用,但是从长期来看,随着货币供给量的增加,必然会产生通货膨胀、物价上涨、货币贬值等一系列的经济问题,进而阻碍经济的长期稳定发展。因此,政府在货币供给问题上应该坚持实行稳健型或者适度紧缩货币政策,维持货币供给的稳定性。
This paper selected the data of China＇ s level of currency supply （M1） and national gross domestic product （GDP） during 1978 -2010 for empirical research, through the establishment of the VEC mode, this paper research the validity of currency supply on economic growth from the view of the fluctuations in time currency supply. The results show that ： the money supply expansion on economic growth in the short term will play an immediate stimulating effect, but in the long term, with the increase of money supply, it will inevitably lead to a series of economic problems such as inflation, rising prices, currency devaluation, etc. Thereby impeding the development of long - term economic stability. The government should insist on the currency supply steady or Moderately tight monetary policy to maintain the stability of the currency supply.
出处
《哈尔滨商业大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
2012年第5期46-51,共6页
Journal of Harbin University of Commerce:Social Science Edition
