摘要
运用1978年至2003年的年度统计数据,对现金、狭义货币和广义货币与各主要经济变量之间因果关系进行Granger因果检验.在此基础上,具体分析相应货币供给量与主要经济变量之间的协整关系,建立误差修正模型.分析结果表明,货币供应量的变化对经济增长GDP的作用力不大,对消费和投资的影响力较小,货币供应量的变化对信贷的变化影响较大;从协整关系来看,信贷与货币供应量几乎同比例变化,两者的均衡误差也较大,货币供给对利率的影响也有较明显的滞后.
Wielding the annual statistics data from 1978 to 2003 , we carry out the testing for Granger causality between cash , narrow money and broad money with every main economy variable. According to this, we analyse the conintegration relationship between corresponding currency supplies with main economy variable, and build error correction model. The results indicate that the currency supply level change has a little effect to economic growth GDP, and has a less influence to consumption and investment, a high influence to credit; judging from conintegration relation, credit and curreney supply level change nearly with proportion, and have a big balance error also. The effect that currency supplies to interest rate also has more obvious lagging.
出处
《华侨大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
北大核心
2007年第1期101-104,共4页
Journal of Huaqiao University(Natural Science)
基金
国务院侨务办公室资金资助项目(01QZR07)
关键词
货币供给
GRANGER因果检验
协整检验
误差修正模型
money supply
Granger test of causality
co-integration regression
vector error correction model
