摘要
为了给海上航行船舶防避热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone,TC)提供参考,利用2010和2011年日本TC警报图上提供的36个TC实时、综合预报资料,采用数理统计方法分析TC路径和强度预报误差.结果表明:24,48,72 h TC预报路径的平均距离误差分别为106.5,194.8,306.4 km;随着预报时效的增加,距离误差分布范围增大;路径预报主要偏向SW和NE象限,其次为SE和NW象限;TC强度预报误差随预报时效的增加而增大;24,48,72 h最大风速预报的平均绝对误差分别为7.4,11.7,13.6 kn,中心气压的平均绝对误差分别为0.80,1.27,1.46 kPa;一般情况下,预报强度偏强的频率较大,预报强度偏弱的频率较小,且强度预报偏弱时,预报误差的幅度往往较大;路径预报的平均距离误差随强度增强而减小,而平均强度误差(即中心气压和近中心最大风速预报误差)随强度增强总体呈增大的趋势.
In order to provide a reference for seagoing ships in avoiding tropical cyclones, errors of Tropical Cyclone （TC） track and strength forecast are analyzed by using the real-time and integrated forecast data of 36 TCs generated by the Japan TC warning charts in 2010 and 2011 by mathematical statistical method. The results show ： the average errors of TC track forecast in 24, 48, 72 h are 106.5, 194.8, 306.4 km respectively ; the distribution scale of distance error enlarges with the increase of forecast time ; the TC track deviates into the southwest and northeast quadrant mainly, and the southeast and northwest quadrant secondly ; the error of TC strength forecast increases with the increase of forecast time ; the average absolute errors of maximum speed forecast in 24, 48, 72 h are 7.4, 11.7, 13.6 kn respectively, and the average absolute errors of central pressure forecast are 0.80, 1.27, 1.46 kPa respectively ; the positive error in strength forecast happens more frequently than the negative error in general, and the negative error inclines to have a comparatively larger absolute forecast error; the average distance errors of the track forecast decreases as the strength increases, but the average error of strength forecast （ namely the average forecast error of the central pressure and the maximum speed） increases as the strength in- creases
出处
《上海海事大学学报》
北大核心
2012年第3期5-9,共5页
Journal of Shanghai Maritime University
基金
江苏省中青年学术带头人培养基金
关键词
水路运输
日本数值预报模式
热带气旋
预报误差
waterway transportation
Japan numerical forecast model
tropical cyclone
forecast error
